Spartak Moscow 2–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

Q. Promes 72'

A. Sobolev 10'

A. Zakharyan 55'

5/29/2022

Cup · FinalStadion Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Spartak Moscow53%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Moscow26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.37

Spartak Moscow

2.04

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

Spartak Moscow creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

2.42

creates per match

1.74

1.00

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

2.42

Dinamo Moscow

1.74

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.00

Dinamo Moscow

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

74%

Spartak Moscow or Dinamo Moscow

78%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

47%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

87%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

60%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

33%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

67%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

53%

level

22%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

26%

Spartak Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Sobolev↳ M. Ignatov

55'

A. Zakharyan

66'

S. Nicholson← M. Ignatov

66'

M. Caufriez← G. Dzhikiya

72'

Q. Promes↳ A. Sobolev

77'

D. Lesovoy← S. Parshivlyuk

77'

V. Grulev← F. Smolov

80'

Aleksandr Sobolev

82'

R. Zobnin← A. Sobolev

88'

N. Moro← D. Skopintsev

88'

D. Makarov← G. Varela

89'

Aleksandr Maksimenko

90'

N. Umyarov← Q. Promes

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SpartakDinamo

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots10

3Corners4

5Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target1

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0