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Spartak Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
8/25/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Otkrytie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Spartak Moscow44%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moscow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.54
Dinamo Moscow
1.23

Spartak Moscow creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.04
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
70%
Spartak Moscow or Dinamo Moscow
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
56%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
59%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
44%
level
25%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
30%

Spartak Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Spartak Moscow 2–1 Dinamo Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat Dinamo Moscow 2-1 in Premier League on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Otkrytie Arena in Moscow.