Spartak Moscow 2 4–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

S. Oganesyan 89', 30'

M. Ignatov 63'

Pedro Rocha 32'

A. Shchadin 59'

A. Nosov 33'

5/8/2021

First League · Round 41Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Moscow 242%

×Draw26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.24

Spartak Moscow 2

1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.24

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 122 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

1.49

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.38

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.49

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

68%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Shinnik Yaroslavl

74%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

58%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

20%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

76%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

42%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

71%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

35%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

56%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.38 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

42%

level

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

32%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

26'

30'

32'

33'

58'

59'

63'

64'

A. Tashaev← N. Bakalyuk

64'

V. Ignatenko← A. Shchadin

74'

A. Gongapshev← A. Nosov

76'

N. Malyarov← A. Samsonov

82'

N. Dorofeev← S. Karetnik

87'

I. Golyatov← Pedro Rocha

89'

D. Tananeev← I. Azyavin

89'

S. Oganesyan

90+1'

Vitali Shitov← S. Melnikov

Spartak4-2-3-1

Shinnik4-4-2

9

Nizamutdi

24

▼

Azyavin

15

Samoylov

45

Betyuzhno

20

▼

Karetnik

19

▼

Samsonov

5

Zinkov

70

⚽

▼

Nosov

4

Steshin

27

⚽

▼

Shchadin

13

Matyusha

27

Akmurzin

22

⚽

63

36

35

80

▼

Bakalyuk

75

Sungatuli

84

⚽2

Oganesyan

71

▼

Melnikov

97

Denisov

99

⚽

▼

Rocha

Manager: E. Bushmanov

64'▲A. Tashaev←▼N. Bakalyuk

87'▲I. Golyatov←▼Pedro Rocha

90+1'▲Vitali Shitov←▼S. Melnikov

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

88Tashaev89Golyatov76Shitov31Shitov53Muminov61Golosov73Shitov83Laykin90Shiltsov94Detenyshev

Manager: Y. Gazzaev

64'▲V. Ignatenko←▼A. Shchadin

74'▲A. Gongapshev←▼A. Nosov

76'▲N. Malyarov←▼A. Samsonov

82'▲N. Dorofeev←▼S. Karetnik

89'▲D. Tananeev←▼I. Azyavin

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

90Ignatenko77Gongapshev33Malyarov89Dorofeev44Tananeev2Shcherbakov57Zirikov72Maslennikov

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 4–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 4-2 in First League on May 8, 2021.

Goals: S. Oganesyan (30', 89'), Pedro Rocha (32'), A. Nosov (33'), A. Shchadin (59'), M. Ignatov (63').

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.

Spartak Moscow 2 vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 4–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl