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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2026

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
9/29/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl42%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow 231%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.36
Spartak Moscow 2
1.13

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 20% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 73 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.08
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Spartak Moscow 2
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
58%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
74%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
39%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
68%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
31%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
57%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 121 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
42%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Moscow 2

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Spartak Moscow 2 3-2 in First League on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.