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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
10/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Spartak Moscow 234%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.17
Rotor Volgograd
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 87 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.38
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Rotor Volgograd
0.97

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
61%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
66%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
14%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
11%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
72%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
36%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
47%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.38 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
34%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
39%

Rotor Volgograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Moscow 2 1 – 1 Rotor Volgograd

Spartak Moscow 2 and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.