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Rotor Volgograd vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
CANC
00:00
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
3/22/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Rotor Volgograd44%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow 229%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.39
Spartak Moscow 2
1.09

Rotor Volgograd creates 28% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.18
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
71%
Rotor Volgograd or Spartak Moscow 2
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
56%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
75%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
40%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
66%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
60%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 87 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.18 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
44%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
29%

Rotor Volgograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd face Spartak Moscow 2 (First League)

First League returns with Rotor Volgograd hosting Spartak Moscow 2. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotor Volgograd host Spartak Moscow 2 at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.