Spartak Moscow 2 2–3 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Orenburg

4/17/2022

First League · Round 33Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spartak Moscow 228%

×Draw25%

Orenburg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.59

Spartak Moscow 2

1.16

Orenburg

1.59

Orenburg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 40 away

1.36

creates per match

1.70

1.49

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.36

Orenburg

1.70

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.49

Orenburg

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

53%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Orenburg

75%

Draw or Orenburg

72%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

11%

Orenburg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

69%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

32%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

11%

Orenburg 1+ goals

80%

Orenburg 2+ goals

47%

Orenburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

37%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

28%

level

25%

Orenburg scores more

47%

Orenburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff