Orenburg 2–1 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

Orenburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Moscow 2

10/3/2021

First League · Round 15Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Orenburg55%

×Draw24%

Spartak Moscow 222%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.99

Orenburg

1.73

Spartak Moscow 2

0.99

Orenburg creates 75% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 73 away

1.85

creates per match

1.18

0.80

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Orenburg

1.85

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

Orenburg

0.80

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

78%

Orenburg or Spartak Moscow 2

76%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

45%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

30%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

82%

Orenburg 2+ goals

52%

Orenburg 3+ goals

25%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

63%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

26%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

72%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.85 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Orenburg scores more

55%

level

24%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

22%

Orenburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff