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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
11/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Spartak Moscow 243%
×Draw25%
Mordovia Saransk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Mordovia Saransk
1.25

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 36 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.36
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
68%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Mordovia Saransk
75%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
57%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
21%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
44%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
19%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
71%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
36%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
57%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
43%
level
25%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
32%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Mordovia Saransk

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Mordovia Saransk 2-0 in First League on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak in Moskva.