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Mordovia Saransk vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
7/20/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk36%
×Draw28%
Spartak Moscow 236%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mordovia Saransk
1.21
Spartak Moscow 2
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk
0.81
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk
1.24
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw
64%
Mordovia Saransk or Spartak Moscow 2
72%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
64%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
15%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
70%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
34%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
12%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
50%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more
36%
level
28%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
36%

Mordovia Saransk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Mordovia Saransk 1–0 Spartak Moscow 2

Mordovia Saransk beat Spartak Moscow 2 1-0 in First League on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Start in Saransk.