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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Metallurg Lipetsk — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
3/26/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Spartak Moscow 250%
×Draw24%
Metallurg Lipetsk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.76
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.22

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.36
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.95

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.16

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
73%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Metallurg Lipetsk
76%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
50%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
27%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
52%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
26%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
70%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
34%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
65%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
50%
level
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
27%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 3–2 Metallurg Lipetsk

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Metallurg Lipetsk 3-2 in First League on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.