Metallurg Lipetsk 0–2 Spartak Moscow 2

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Moscow 2

9/15/2021

First League · Round 11Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk32%

×Draw27%

Spartak Moscow 242%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.35

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.14

Spartak Moscow 2

1.35

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

0.68

creates per match

1.18

1.53

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.68

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.53

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

58%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Spartak Moscow 2

73%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

68%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

13%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

68%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

32%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

11%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

74%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

39%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

43%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.68 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

32%

level

27%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

42%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff