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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
5/5/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Spartak Moscow 228%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.11
Krylya Sovetov
1.52

Krylya Sovetov creates 37% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 22 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.36
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
53%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
72%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
11%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
67%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
10%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
78%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
45%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
37%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
28%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
47%

Krylya Sovetov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Spartak Moscow 2 0–2 Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Spartak Moscow 2 2-0 in First League on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.