Krylya Sovetov 2–1 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Moscow 2

10/13/2020

First League · Round 15Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov71%

×Draw18%

Spartak Moscow 211%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.79

Krylya Sovetov

2.30

Spartak Moscow 2

0.79

Krylya Sovetov creates 191% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 73 away

3.00

creates per match

1.18

0.41

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

3.00

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.41

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

89%

Krylya Sovetov or Spartak Moscow 2

82%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

29%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

48%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

90%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

67%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

40%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

55%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

19%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

86%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

71%

level

18%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

11%

Krylya Sovetov at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff