Spartak Moscow 2 1–2 Irtysh Omsk: Result & Stats

Spartak Moscow 2

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Irtysh Omsk

S. Nimely 48'

A. Krotov 55'

V. Sychevoy 27'

11/29/2020

First League · Round 25Futbol'naya Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Spartak Moscow 242%

×Draw26%

Irtysh Omsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak Moscow 2Expected goals in this matchIrtysh Omsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Spartak Moscow 2

1.40

Irtysh Omsk

1.17

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 21 away

1.37

creates per match

0.86

1.47

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.37

Irtysh Omsk

0.86

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2

1.47

Irtysh Omsk

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Irtysh Omsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw

69%

Spartak Moscow 2 or Irtysh Omsk

74%

Draw or Irtysh Omsk

58%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

20%

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

41%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

17%

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

69%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

33%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

57%

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 70 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.37 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

42%

level

26%

Irtysh Omsk scores more

31%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

27'

32'

38'

46'

S. Nimely← S. Kozhedub

46'

Vitali Shitov← R. Litvinov

46'

S. Podoksenov← I. Kireev

48'

55'

55'

62'

70'

M. Laykin← L. Mironov

73'

A. Rukas← R. Gordienko

79'

Andrius Rukas

86'

K. Shiltsov← N. Bakalyuk

89'

A. Kerbs← V. Steklov

90+3'

A. Shleermakher← V. Sychevoy

Spartak4-2-3-1

Irtysh3-4-2-1

83

Shmykov

18

▼

Gordienko

77

⚽

▼

Sychevoy

23

⚽

Krotov

21

Kiselev

20

▼

Steklov

88

▼

30

3

15

60

27

36

35

▼

Mironov

21

Badu

55

Djakov

68

▼

Litvinov

63

Petrunin

87

▼

Kozhedub

97

Denisov

80

▼

Bakalyuk

73

Shitov

Manager: R. Pylypchuk

46'▲S. Nimely←▼S. Kozhedub

46'▲Vitali Shitov←▼R. Litvinov

70'▲M. Laykin←▼L. Mironov

86'▲K. Shiltsov←▼N. Bakalyuk

Spartak Moscow 2 substitutes

66Nimely76Shitov83Laykin90Shiltsov30Romagnoli31Shitov53Muminov89Golyatov94Detenyshev

Manager: E. Kharlachev

46'▲S. Podoksenov←▼I. Kireev

73'▲A. Rukas←▼R. Gordienko

89'▲A. Kerbs←▼V. Steklov

90+3'▲A. Shleermakher←▼V. Sychevoy

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

8Podoksenov5Rukas29Kerbs17Shleermakher1Avdyushkin10Tretjakov22Tarabanov24Kuznetsov