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Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
8/22/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk30%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow 243%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.08
Spartak Moscow 2
1.35

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.57
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.52
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
57%
Irtysh Omsk or Spartak Moscow 2
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
70%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
12%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
66%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
29%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
10%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
41%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
30%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
43%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Irtysh Omsk 0–5 Spartak Moscow 2

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Irtysh Omsk 5-0 in First League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.