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Spartak Moscow 2 vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
11/13/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Moscow 242%
×Draw27%
FC Armavir31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.31
FC Armavir
1.09

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 32 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.36
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.49
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
69%
Spartak Moscow 2 or FC Armavir
73%
Draw or FC Armavir
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
19%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
38%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
14%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
66%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
30%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
57%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.36 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
42%
level
27%
FC Armavir scores more
31%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs FC Armavir

FC Armavir beat Spartak Moscow 2 3-1 in First League on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Spartak in Moskva.