FC Armavir 1–1 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

FC Armavir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Moscow 2

7/29/2019

First League · Round 5Stadion Yunost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir41%

×Draw28%

Spartak Moscow 231%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ArmavirExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.09

FC Armavir

1.30

Spartak Moscow 2

1.09

FC Armavir creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 73 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Spartak Moscow 2

1.18

allows per match

FC Armavir

1.00

Spartak Moscow 2

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw

69%

FC Armavir or Spartak Moscow 2

72%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

59%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+

19%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals

73%

FC Armavir 2+ goals

37%

FC Armavir 3+ goals

14%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

66%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

30%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)

57%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Armavir scores more

41%

level

28%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

31%

FC Armavir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff