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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
5/5/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moscow 248%
×Draw24%
Chertanovo Moscow28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.66
Chertanovo Moscow
1.22

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.79
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
0.79
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
72%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Chertanovo Moscow
76%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
52%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
25%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
81%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
49%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
23%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
34%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
63%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.79 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
48%
level
24%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
28%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Chertanovo Moscow

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Chertanovo Moscow 4-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.