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Chertanovo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
8/17/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow42%
×Draw24%
Spartak Moscow 234%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.60
Spartak Moscow 2
1.40

Chertanovo Moscow creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Spartak Moscow 2
1.57

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Spartak Moscow 2
1.66

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
66%
Chertanovo Moscow or Spartak Moscow 2
76%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
58%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
21%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
80%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
22%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
41%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
56%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.57 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
42%
level
24%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
34%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chertanovo Moscow 3–2 Spartak Moscow 2

Chertanovo Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 2 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.