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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
9/22/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moscow 251%
×Draw25%
Baltika BFU24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.60
Baltika BFU
1.02

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.79
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
0.79
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
76%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Baltika BFU
75%
Draw or Baltika BFU
49%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
27%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
22%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
64%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
27%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
68%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.79 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
51%
level
25%
Baltika BFU scores more
24%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Baltika BFU

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Baltika BFU 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.