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Baltika BFU vs Spartak Moscow 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
6/7/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Baltika BFU40%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moscow 235%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.44
Spartak Moscow 2
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Spartak Moscow 2
1.57

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Spartak Moscow 2
1.66

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
65%
Baltika BFU or Spartak Moscow 2
75%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
60%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
19%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
76%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
42%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
53%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.57 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
40%
level
25%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
35%

Baltika BFU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Baltika BFU 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Baltika BFU 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.