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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Baltika — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
0 – 4
Baltika
Baltika
6/14/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spartak Moscow 222%
×Draw21%
Baltika57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.27
Baltika
2.15

Baltika creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
2.33
Baltika
2.80

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.50
Baltika
0.20

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
43%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Baltika
79%
Draw or Baltika
78%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
9%
Baltika wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
14%
Baltika 1+ goals
88%
Baltika 2+ goals
63%
Baltika 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
28%
Baltika (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Baltika away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 2.33 + Baltika defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baltika attack 2.80 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
22%
level
21%
Baltika scores more
57%

Baltika at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Spartak Moscow 2 0–4 Baltika

Baltika beat Spartak Moscow 2 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.