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Baltika vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
4/2/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Baltika48%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow 225%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.44
Spartak Moscow 2
0.96

Baltika creates 50% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
75%
Baltika or Spartak Moscow 2
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
52%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
76%
Baltika 2+ goals
42%
Baltika 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
62%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
25%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
66%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baltika scores more
48%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
25%

Baltika at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Spartak Moscow 2

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Baltika 1-0 in First League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.