Spartak Kostroma 1–1 Volgar Astrakhan

Spartak Kostroma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Volgar Astrakhan

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Kostroma46%

×Draw31%

Volgar Astrakhan23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.71

Spartak Kostroma

1.16

Volgar Astrakhan

0.71

Spartak Kostroma creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

0.43

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.57

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

0.43

Volgar Astrakhan

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

77%

Spartak Kostroma or Volgar Astrakhan

69%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

54%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

20%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

69%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

32%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

11%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

51%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

16%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

67%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.57 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

46%

level

31%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

23%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Spartak

Volgar

Manager: Sergey Bondar

Manager: D. Klyuev