Spartak Kostroma 4–1 Volgar Astrakhan

Spartak Kostroma

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Volgar Astrakhan

A. Saplinov 82', 74' (pen)

I. Rubtsov 56'

A. Khorin 20'

I. Zuev 13'

4/13/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 7Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spartak Kostroma54%

×Draw24%

Volgar Astrakhan22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchVolgar Astrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.00

Spartak Kostroma

1.73

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

Spartak Kostroma creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.67

Volgar Astrakhan

1.00

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Volgar Astrakhan

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

78%

Spartak Kostroma or Volgar Astrakhan

76%

Draw or Volgar Astrakhan

46%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

30%

Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

25%

Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals

63%

Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals

26%

Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

71%

Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.67 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.00 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

54%

level

24%

Volgar Astrakhan scores more

22%

Spartak Kostroma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

13'

20'

22'

26'

30'

S. Loskutov← D. Melnikov

45+2'

K. Chursin

46'

D. Kaptilovich← K. Korolkov

46'

M. Chikanchi← K. Chursin

56'

I. Rubtsov

59'

S. Bugriev← D. Zhilmostnykh

70'

D. Sadov← A. Khorin

74'

A. SaplinovPenalty

81'

D. Fayzullin← I. Rubtsov

81'

A. Bakhtiyarov← A. Pavlishin

81'

S. Puzanov← D. Mironov

81'

I. Matyushenko← E. Proshkin

82'

A. Saplinov

85'

N. Supranovich

Spartak

Volgar

99

Smirnov

5

Khomukha

58

⚽

▼

Zuev

71

Nasyrov

28

▼

Proshkin

78

▼

Melnikov

7

▼

77

17

24

88

▼

Mironov

68

Gaydash

4

Supranovi

5

▼

Zhilmostn

18

Ignatyev

78

Kiselev

55

⚽2

Saplinov

56

Demyanov

10

▼

Korolkov

80

⚽

▼

Khorin

69

▼

Chursin

13

⚽

▼

Rubtsov

Manager: E. Taranukhin

46'▲D. Kaptilovich←▼K. Korolkov

46'▲M. Chikanchi←▼K. Chursin

59'▲S. Bugriev←▼D. Zhilmostnykh

70'▲D. Sadov←▼A. Khorin

81'▲D. Fayzullin←▼I. Rubtsov

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

14Kaptilovich23Chikanchi3Bugriev8Sadov50Fayzullin7Zhironkin24Kudryashov31Jobava77Meshcheryakov91Kulikov

Manager: D. Klyuev

26'▲D. Gorovykh←▼I. Zuev

30'▲S. Loskutov←▼D. Melnikov

81'▲A. Bakhtiyarov←▼A. Pavlishin

81'▲S. Puzanov←▼D. Mironov

81'▲I. Matyushenko←▼E. Proshkin

Volgar Astrakhan substitutes

27Gorovykh56Loskutov11Bakhtiyarov22Puzanov55Matyushenko1Yampolskiy6Krivokhizhin8Galanin23Zuykov40Burkin