Spartak Kostroma vs Torpedo Moskva

Spartak Kostroma

Preview

15:00

Torpedo Moskva

4/17/2027

First League · Round 28Stadion Urozhay

36%

Spartak Kostroma

model favours

36%29%35%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma36%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.11

Spartak Kostroma

1.13

Torpedo Moskva

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

1.28

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Torpedo Moskva

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

65%

Spartak Kostroma or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

64%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

15%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

68%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

31%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

11%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

67%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

51%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

36%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

35%

Spartak Kostroma at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Kostroma

WLLDD

Moskva

WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff