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Spartak Kostroma vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Preview
16:00
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
12/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Urozhay
46%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
46%27%26%

Spartak Kostroma sit 4, Ska-khabarovsk 17 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma46%
×Draw27%
Ska-khabarovsk26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.38
Ska-khabarovsk
0.97

Spartak Kostroma creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Ska-khabarovsk
0.95

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Ska-khabarovsk
1.48

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
74%
Spartak Kostroma or Ska-khabarovsk
73%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
54%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
22%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
16%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
62%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
25%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
64%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.95 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
46%
level
27%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
26%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kostroma
WLLDD
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Kostroma face Ska-khabarovsk (First League)

First League returns with Spartak Kostroma hosting Ska-khabarovsk. Match starts December 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartak Kostroma host Ska-khabarovsk at Stadion Urozhay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.