Ska-khabarovsk 3–1 Spartak Kostroma: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

3 – 1

Spartak Kostroma

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk55%

×Draw23%

Spartak Kostroma22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.06

Ska-khabarovsk

1.80

Spartak Kostroma

1.06

Ska-khabarovsk creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.44

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.13

Spartak Kostroma

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

78%

Ska-khabarovsk or Spartak Kostroma

77%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

45%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

31%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

83%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

54%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

27%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

71%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.44 + Spartak Kostroma defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

55%

level

23%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

22%

Ska-khabarovsk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ska-khabarovsk

Spartak

68

7

3

5

19

8

35

69

10

55

23

78

22

3

30

91

71

20

7

50

13

19

Manager: Aleksey Poddubskiy

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

51Botnar8Emeljanov84Grebenkin82Ilyev21Gurban40Prishchepov55Aleynikov11Gagloev14Bragin

Manager: Sergey Bondar

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

Terekhov11Nazarenko99Gharibyan77Meshcheryakov

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma

Ska-khabarovsk beat Spartak Kostroma 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma