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Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
A. Gagloev 87' (pen)
D. Sadov 42'
E. Nazarenko 16'
8/24/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk43%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.42
Spartak Kostroma
1.17

Ska-khabarovsk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
69%
Ska-khabarovsk or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
57%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
76%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
41%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
33%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
58%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
43%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
31%

Ska-khabarovsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Denis Zhilmostnykh
16'
E. Nazarenko
42'
D. Sadov
52'
Andrey Anisimov
60'
M. Kutovoy← J. Alcalde
61'
A. Saplinov← M. Tlekhugov
65'
D. Pershin← D. Yanov
65'
A. Maksimenko← G. Gurban
74'
Artur Gharibyan
74'
V. Demyanov← D. Sadov
74'
M. Chikanchi← A. Gharibyan
76'
A. Gagloev← B. Gurtsiev
76'
D. Bolataev← S. Bagiev
87'
A. GagloevPenalty
88'
S. Bugriev← I. Enin
88'
Y. Makarenko← E. Nazarenko

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskSpartak
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 1–2 Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Ska-khabarovsk 2-1 in First League on August 24, 2025.

Goals: E. Nazarenko (16'), D. Sadov (42'), A. Gagloev (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.