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Spartak Kostroma vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
2/28/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma37%
×Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.11
Rotor Volgograd
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 87 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.28
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
67%
Spartak Kostroma or Rotor Volgograd
70%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
63%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
15%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
67%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
10%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
64%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
28%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
53%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
37%
level
30%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
33%

Spartak Kostroma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Rotor Volgograd

Spartak Kostroma and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Karavaevo.