Rotor Volgograd 2–0 Spartak Kostroma

Rotor Volgograd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Kostroma

10/29/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 16Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rotor Volgograd55%

×Draw27%

Spartak Kostroma18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.70

Rotor Volgograd

1.45

Spartak Kostroma

0.70

Rotor Volgograd creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.56

creates per match

0.61

0.78

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.56

Spartak Kostroma

0.61

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.78

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

82%

Rotor Volgograd or Spartak Kostroma

73%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

45%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

28%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

77%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

42%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

18%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

50%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

16%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

75%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.56 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Spartak Kostroma attack 0.61 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

55%

level

27%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

18%

Rotor Volgograd at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff