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Spartak Kostroma vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
8/11/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 4Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma49%
×Draw26%
Novosibirsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.47
Novosibirsk
0.95

Spartak Kostroma creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.33
Novosibirsk
0.96

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
0.94
Novosibirsk
1.61

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
76%
Spartak Kostroma or Novosibirsk
74%
Draw or Novosibirsk
51%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
25%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
43%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
18%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
61%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
25%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
67%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
49%
level
26%
Novosibirsk scores more
24%

Spartak Kostroma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Novosibirsk

Spartak Kostroma beat Novosibirsk 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj in Karavaevo.