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Novosibirsk vs Spartak Kostroma — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
10/6/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12RFTs Zarya manezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Novosibirsk58%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
1.52
Spartak Kostroma
0.65

Novosibirsk creates 134% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.71
Spartak Kostroma
0.61

allows per match

Novosibirsk
0.68
Spartak Kostroma
1.33

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
84%
Novosibirsk or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
42%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
31%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
78%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
45%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
20%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
48%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
14%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
79%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.71 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartak Kostroma attack 0.61 + Novosibirsk defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
58%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
16%

Novosibirsk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Novosibirsk 0–0 Spartak Kostroma

Novosibirsk and Spartak Kostroma drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at RFTs Zarya manezh in Novosibirsk.