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Spartak Kostroma vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kaluga
Kaluga
10/26/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma50%
×Draw27%
Kaluga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
1.45
Kaluga
0.89

Spartak Kostroma creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
1.33
Kaluga
0.83

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
0.94
Kaluga
1.56

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
77%
Spartak Kostroma or Kaluga
73%
Draw or Kaluga
50%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
25%
Kaluga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
77%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
42%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
18%
Kaluga 1+ goals
59%
Kaluga 2+ goals
22%
Kaluga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
68%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
50%
level
27%
Kaluga scores more
23%

Spartak Kostroma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Spartak Kostroma 3–2 Kaluga

Spartak Kostroma beat Kaluga 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj in Karavaevo.