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Kaluga vs Spartak Kostroma — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
8/31/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 7Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kaluga39%
×Draw28%
Spartak Kostroma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.20
Spartak Kostroma
1.08

Kaluga creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.06
Spartak Kostroma
0.61

allows per match

Kaluga
1.56
Spartak Kostroma
1.33

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
67%
Kaluga or Spartak Kostroma
72%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
61%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
70%
Kaluga 2+ goals
34%
Kaluga 3+ goals
12%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
66%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
29%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
54%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.06 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Spartak Kostroma attack 0.61 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaluga scores more
39%
level
28%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
33%

Kaluga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Kaluga 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik in Kaluga.