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Spartak Kostroma vs Irtysh Omsk — League #1064 2026

Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
3/9/2024League #1064League #1064 · Spring Season Silver - 2Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Kostroma50%
×Draw40%
Irtysh Omsk10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Kostroma
0.88
Irtysh Omsk
0.25

Spartak Kostroma creates 252% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma
0.50
Irtysh Omsk
0.25

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma
0.25
Irtysh Omsk
1.25

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Under
  • Under89
  • Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–032%
0–18%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–028%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (32%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
68%32%1.5
31%69%2.5
11%89%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw
90%
Spartak Kostroma or Irtysh Omsk
60%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
50%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
18%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
22%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
6%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
22%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
3%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
83%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 0.50 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.25 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more
50%
level
40%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
10%

Spartak Kostroma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Irtysh Omsk

Spartak Kostroma beat Irtysh Omsk 1-0 in League #1064 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.