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Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Kostroma — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
3/17/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Irtysh Omsk48%
×Draw23%
Spartak Kostroma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.84
Spartak Kostroma
1.38

Irtysh Omsk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.43
Spartak Kostroma
1.63

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.14
Spartak Kostroma
2.25

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
71%
Irtysh Omsk or Spartak Kostroma
77%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
52%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
27%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
84%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
55%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
28%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
62%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.43 + Spartak Kostroma defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.63 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
48%
level
23%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
29%

Irtysh Omsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Kostroma

Irtysh Omsk beat Spartak Kostroma 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 17, 2023.