Spartak Kostroma 1–1 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Neftekhimik

I. Enin 26'

D. Kokoev 72'

8/3/2025

First League · Round 3Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma40%

×Draw28%

FK Neftekhimik32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Spartak Kostroma

1.23

FK Neftekhimik

1.06

Spartak Kostroma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 122 away

1.28

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

FK Neftekhimik

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

68%

Spartak Kostroma or FK Neftekhimik

72%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

60%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

17%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

35%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

13%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

65%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

29%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

56%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

40%

level

28%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

32%

Spartak Kostroma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

I. Enin

46'

D. Shadrintsev← M. Sitdikov

46'

D. Mikhaylov← A. Kotik

46'

D. Kuchugura← K. Shiltsov

61'

D. Kokoev← G. Kantaria

64'

K. Chursin← D. Sadov

72'

D. Kokoev

73'

V. Demyanov← A. Nemchenko

73'

M. Tlekhugov← E. Nazarenko

75'

R. Magomedov← K. Moiseev

81'

I. Meshcheryakov← I. Enin

81'

A. A. Khorin← M. Chikanchi

84'

Viktor Demjanov

Statistics

SpartakFK

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0