FK Neftekhimik 3–1 Spartak Kostroma: Result & Stats

FK Neftekhimik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Kostroma

R. Magomedov 90', 59'

D. Sappa 67' (OG)

A. Kalmykov 38' (pen)

4/18/2026

First League · Round 29Neftekhimik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Neftekhimik40%

×Draw26%

Spartak Kostroma34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK NeftekhimikExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.24

FK Neftekhimik

1.37

Spartak Kostroma

1.24

FK Neftekhimik creates 10% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

1.53

0.95

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik

1.33

Spartak Kostroma

1.53

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik

0.95

Spartak Kostroma

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw

66%

FK Neftekhimik or Spartak Kostroma

74%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

60%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

18%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

75%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

40%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

16%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

35%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

54%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 122 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.33 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more

40%

level

26%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

34%

FK Neftekhimik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Islam Mashukov

38'

A. KalmykovPenalty

46'

M. Musalov← E. Valiakhmetov

46'

M. Shiryaev← P. Platonov

57'

A. Kakhidze← D. Rodin

57'

R. Magomedov← I. Mashukov

59'

R. Magomedov

67'

D. SappaOwn goal

73'

I. Meshcheryakov← I. Enin

73'

I. Rubtsov← D. Pantelic

74'

M. Sitdikov← D. Shadrintsev

82'

M. Tlekhugov← E. Nazarenko

88'

K. Chursin← V. Lyakh

90'

R. Magomedov

Possession

Statistics

FKSpartak

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Corners3

Shots

5On Target9

2Off Target5

Passing

51%Possession49%

Discipline

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0