Spartak Kostroma 0–1 Fakel: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel

B. Pusi 47'

7/20/2025

First League · Round 1Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma41%

×Draw28%

Fakel32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchFakel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.10

Spartak Kostroma

1.29

Fakel

1.10

Spartak Kostroma creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

1.28

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Fakel

1.20

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Fakel

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Fakel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

68%

Spartak Kostroma or Fakel

72%

Draw or Fakel

59%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

18%

Fakel wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

14%

Fakel 1+ goals

67%

Fakel 2+ goals

30%

Fakel 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

56%

Fakel (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fakel attack 1.20 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

41%

level

28%

Fakel scores more

32%

Spartak Kostroma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Nikolay Tarasov

30'

S. Bugriev← D. Zhilmostnykh

35'

M. Chikanchi← I. Rubtsov

46'

M. Tlekhugov← E. Nazarenko

47'

B. Pusi

62'

Kirill Simonov

63'

Butta Magomedov

64'

A. Bagamaev← K. Simonov

70'

73'

73'

73'

74'

80'

V. Yakimov← B. Magomedov

81'

N. Giorgobiani← A. Kovalev

81'

M. Turishchev← B. Pusi

Statistics

SpartakFakel

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0