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Fakel vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
B. Pusi 64', 41'
A. Bagamaev 51'
N. Tarasov 68', 57'
11/10/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fakel40%
×Draw28%
Spartak Kostroma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.28
Spartak Kostroma
1.13

Fakel creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fakel
1.16
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Fakel
0.72
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
67%
Fakel or Spartak Kostroma
72%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
60%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
72%
Fakel 2+ goals
37%
Fakel 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
68%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
31%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
55%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel scores more
40%
level
28%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
33%

Fakel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
B. Pusi
46'
A. Gharibyan← G. Kiselev
51'
A. Bagamaev
55'
Igor Yurganov
57'
N. Tarasov
62'
D. Sadov← A. Nemchenko
64'
B. Pusi
65'
A. Gabaraev← M. Uridia
68'
N. Tarasov
71'
E. Nazarenko← I. Enin
71'
K. Chursin← M. Tlekhugov
77'
Belajdi Pusi
78'
B. Magomedov← V. Yakimov
78'
G. Gongadze← I. Alshin
79'
Dmitri Sadov
87'
S. Bugriev←
90+2'
Georgiy Gongadze
90'
N. Motpan← B. Pusi
90'
K. Simonov← A. Bagamaev

Statistics

FakelSpartak
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Fakel vs Spartak Kostroma

Fakel beat Spartak Kostroma 3-2 in First League on November 10, 2025.

Goals: B. Pusi (41', 64'), A. Bagamaev (51'), N. Tarasov (57', 68').

The match was played at Fakel Stadium in Voronezh.