Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Enisey: Result & Stats | Cup

Spartak Kostroma

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Enisey

G. Kiselev 6'

9/26/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spartak Kostroma37%

×Draw27%

Enisey36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.26

Spartak Kostroma

1.29

Enisey

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.50

Enisey

1.27

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.25

Enisey

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Enisey →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

64%

Spartak Kostroma or Enisey

73%

Draw or Enisey

63%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

17%

Enisey wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

14%

Enisey 1+ goals

72%

Enisey 2+ goals

36%

Enisey 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

51%

Enisey (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.50 + Enisey defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Enisey attack 1.27 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

37%

level

27%

Enisey scores more

36%

Spartak Kostroma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

G. Kiselev

46'

K. Chursin← A. Nemchenko

81'

I. Rubtsov← A. Seraskhov

81'

D. Fedorenko← M. Stepin

81'

A. Gubanov← Aleksandr Nadolskiy

84'

K. Korolkov

87'

Artem Nadolskiy← A. Malfanov

88'

I. Rubtsov

88'

M. Shiryaev

88'

G. Kiselev

89'

D. Kaptilovich← K. Korolkov

Spartak

Enisey

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Bondar

46'▲K. Chursin←▼A. Nemchenko

81'▲I. Rubtsov←▼A. Seraskhov

89'▲D. Kaptilovich←▼K. Korolkov

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

ChursinRubtsovKaptilovich

Manager: A. Tikhonov

81'▲D. Fedorenko←▼M. Stepin

81'▲A. Gubanov←▼Aleksandr Nadolskiy

87'▲Artem Nadolskiy←▼A. Malfanov

Enisey substitutes

FedorenkoGubanovNadolskiy

Cup: Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Enisey

Spartak Kostroma beat Enisey 1-0 in Cup on September 26, 2024.

Goals: G. Kiselev (6').

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj in Karavaevo.

Spartak Kostroma vs Enisey — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Enisey