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Enisey vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
L. Ratkovic 75'
10/19/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Enisey41%
×Draw26%
Spartak Kostroma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.45
Spartak Kostroma
1.27

Enisey creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 17 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.49
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Enisey
1.02
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
67%
Enisey or Spartak Kostroma
74%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
59%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
77%
Enisey 2+ goals
42%
Enisey 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
56%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.49 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Enisey defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Enisey scores more
41%
level
26%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
33%

Enisey at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Denis Zhilmostnykh
46'
Nikolay Tarasov
46'
L. Ratkovic← A. Okladnikov
46'
D. Bokov← E. Nazarenko
60'
R. Ogienko← A. Khashkulov
63'
Denis Bokov
70'
Yan Tses
72'
A. Gilyazetdinov← M. Tikhonov
72'
N. Bogatyrev← A. Maslovskiy
75'
N. Supranovich← M. Chikanchi
75'
L. Ratkovic
79'
S. Bugriev← A. Nemchenko
84'
S. Puchkov← I. Enin
84'
K. Chursin← D. Sadov
90'
Artur Gilyazetdinov
90+4'
O. Kenfak← A. Chukanov

Statistics

EniseySpartak
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

First League: Enisey 1–0 Spartak Kostroma

Enisey beat Spartak Kostroma 1-0 in First League on October 19, 2025.

Goals: L. Ratkovic (75').

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.