Spartak Kostroma 2–1 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chelyabinsk

D. Zhilmostnykh 90'

N. Supranovich 11'

R. Gadzhimuradov 52'

8/17/2025

First League · Round 5Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spartak Kostroma45%

×Draw29%

Chelyabinsk26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.88

Spartak Kostroma

1.26

Chelyabinsk

0.88

Spartak Kostroma creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.28

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Chelyabinsk

0.76

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Chelyabinsk

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

74%

Spartak Kostroma or Chelyabinsk

71%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

55%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

20%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

36%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

13%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

59%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

22%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

64%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

45%

level

29%

Chelyabinsk scores more

26%

Spartak Kostroma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

N. Supranovich

45+1'

Aleksandr Zhirov

46'

G. Levin← A. Gapechkin

52'

R. Gadzhimuradov

63'

A. Nemchenko← D. Sadov

63'

V. Demyanov← K. Chursin

73'

D. Pushkarev← T. Komissarov

75'

M. Tlekhugov← E. Nazarenko

75'

A. Gharibyan← M. Chikanchi

87'

M. Urvantsev← W. Eza

90+1'

S. Bugriev←

90'

D. Zhilmostnykh

Statistics

SpartakChelyabinsk

Discipline

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0