Spartak Kostroma 0–0 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chelyabinsk

10/12/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Kostroma34%

×Draw28%

Chelyabinsk38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Spartak Kostroma

1.11

Chelyabinsk

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.44

0.94

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

Chelyabinsk

1.44

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

0.94

Chelyabinsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

62%

Spartak Kostroma or Chelyabinsk

72%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

66%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

14%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

67%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

30%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

10%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

70%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

33%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

47%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

34%

level

28%

Chelyabinsk scores more

38%

Chelyabinsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Sadov

36'

Y. Gudkov

46'

D. Kaptilovich← K. Chursin

46'

M. Chikanchi← D. Sadov

46'

I. Gruznov← D. Pushkarev

61'

D. Zhilmostnykh

67'

D. Fayzullin← I. Rubtsov

80'

D. Pokotylo← G. Levin

80'

R. Kosyanchuk← V. Gorbachik

85'

R. Kosyanchuk

90+2'

N. Genchu← V. Demyanov

90+2'

N. Goldobin← K. Kertanov

Spartak

Chelyabinsk

1

2

44

63

66

20

18

▼

Kertanov

11

Nosov

70

▼

Levin

33

▼

Gorbachik

15

▼

68

3

5

18

78

8

▼

Sadov

56

▼

Demyanov

22

Nemchenko

10

Korolkov

69

▼

Chursin

13

▼

Rubtsov

Manager: S. Bondar

46'▲D. Kaptilovich←▼K. Chursin

46'▲M. Chikanchi←▼D. Sadov

67'▲D. Fayzullin←▼I. Rubtsov

90+2'▲N. Genchu←▼V. Demyanov

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

14Kaptilovich23Chikanchi50Fayzullin40Genchu4Supranovich7Egurnev9Dryaev11Seraskhov55Saplinov99Terekhov

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

46'▲I. Gruznov←▼D. Pushkarev

80'▲D. Pokotylo←▼G. Levin

80'▲R. Kosyanchuk←▼V. Gorbachik

90+2'▲N. Goldobin←▼K. Kertanov

Chelyabinsk substitutes

36Gruznov22Pokotylo37Kosyanchuk97Goldobin23Rybikov47Furman90Lyakh

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk

Spartak Kostroma and Chelyabinsk drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj in Karavaevo.

Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk