Spartak Kostroma 2–0 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Spartak Kostroma

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

9/29/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 11Stadion Urozhaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spartak Kostroma43%

×Draw26%

Avangard Kursk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.19

Spartak Kostroma

1.45

Avangard Kursk

1.19

Spartak Kostroma creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.44

0.94

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

Avangard Kursk

1.44

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

0.94

Avangard Kursk

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

69%

Spartak Kostroma or Avangard Kursk

74%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

57%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

21%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

42%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

18%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

70%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

33%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

58%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.33 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Spartak Kostroma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

43%

level

26%

Avangard Kursk scores more

31%

Spartak Kostroma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff