Avangard Kursk vs Spartak Kostroma — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Avangard Kursk49%
Spartak Kostroma22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Avangard Kursk creates 69% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Avangard Kursk ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches
Spartak Kostroma away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Avangard Kursk attack 1.22 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27
Spartak Kostroma attack 0.61 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Avangard Kursk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Avangard Kursk host Spartak Kostroma on Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 14:00. The match is part of the Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023/2024 season.
Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Avangard Kursk 1–0 Spartak Kostroma
Avangard Kursk beat Spartak Kostroma 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on August 4, 2024.
Goals: S. Chibisov (67').
The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.