Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

PSV Eindhoven

G. Zechiël 52'

M. Tillman 84'

L. de Jong 58'

I. Perišić 27'

5/18/2025

Eredivisie · Round 34Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam27%

×Draw24%

PSV Eindhoven49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta RotterdamExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.66

Sparta Rotterdam

1.18

PSV Eindhoven

1.66

PSV Eindhoven creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

1.30

creates per match

1.98

1.33

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.30

PSV Eindhoven

1.98

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.33

PSV Eindhoven

1.06

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.13scores more

PSV Eindhoven+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

51%

Sparta Rotterdam or PSV Eindhoven

76%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

73%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

11%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

69%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

33%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

12%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

81%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

49%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

36%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.30 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

PSV Eindhoven attack 1.98 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

27%

level

24%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

49%

PSV Eindhoven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

I. Perišić

PSV Eindhoven · F

8.7

Match Events

27'

I. Perišić↳ O. Boscagli

42'

Gjivai Zechiël

43'

Malik Tillman

46'

M. Nassoh← S. Mito

49'

Malik TillmanPenalty cancelled

52'

G. Zechiël↳ M. Nassoh

58'

L. de Jong

64'

Olivier Boscagli

72'

A. Obispo← I. Saibari

73'

G. Til← O. Boscagli

84'

M. Tillman↳ G. Til

86'

P. Clement← K. Hlynsson

86'

M. Kleijn← P. van Aanholt

86'

N. Þórisson← M. Eerdhuijzen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaPSV

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots25

0.69Expected Goals (xG)2.92

0Corners9

9Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots25

2On Target11

2Off Target5

1Blocked9

5Inside Box20

0Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

266Total Passes576

183Accurate Passes497

69%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2