PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Sparta Rotterdam: Result & Stats

PSV Eindhoven

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sparta Rotterdam

J. Teze 78'

O. Boscagli 67'

J. Bakayoko 26'

J. Schouten 19'

O. Boscagli 29' (OG)

Metinho 8'

5/5/2024

Eredivisie · Round 32Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

PSV Eindhoven66%

×Draw19%

Sparta Rotterdam15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV EindhovenExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.00

PSV Eindhoven

2.28

Sparta Rotterdam

1.00

PSV Eindhoven creates 128% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

2.54

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven

2.54

Sparta Rotterdam

0.96

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven

1.04

Sparta Rotterdam

2.02

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.69scores more

Sparta Rotterdam+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw

85%

PSV Eindhoven or Sparta Rotterdam

81%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam

34%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

43%

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

90%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

66%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

39%

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

63%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

26%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

81%

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.04 · 30 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.54 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more

66%

level

19%

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

15%

PSV Eindhoven at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

O. Boscagli

PSV Eindhoven · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

Metinho↳ S. Bakari

19'

J. Schouten↳ O. Boscagli

26'

J. Bakayoko↳ L. de Jong

29'

O. BoscagliOwn goal

57'

S. Mito← C. Neghli

58'

H. Lozano← André Ramalho

58'

I. Saibari← G. Til

66'

Tobias Lauritsen

67'

O. Boscagli↳ J. Veerman

77'

R. Pepi← L. de Jong

78'

J. Teze↳ R. Pepi

88'

P. van Aanholt← Mauro Júnior

88'

S. Sambo← J. Teze

88'

Sergi Rosanas← S. Bakari

90'

R. Meissen← B. Vriends

90'

T. Velthuis← M. Eerdhuijzen

90+1'

C. Brym← J. de Guzmán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PSVSparta

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots7

2.35Expected Goals (xG)0.46

3Corners4

8Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target1

5Off Target5

6Blocked1

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

597Total Passes274

538Accurate Passes208

90%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2